Posted May 22, 2020 at 16:05 pm
Colorado State University (CSU) has released its first forecast trends for the upcoming 2020 Atlantic hurricane season: “It could be above normal”
The upcoming hurricane season has the probability to be more active than usual, according to the April 2020 forecast from the Colorado State University team, CSU, in its latest statement.
The CSU Tropical Weather Group expects a total of 16 named tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, compared to the long-term average (1981-2010) of 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes.
It´s also projecting a cumulative cyclone energy index (ACE) of 150, compared to the long-term average of 106.
The factors that make the station above normal are due to:
Sea surface temperatures (TSS) are unusually warm during the first quarter of this year, in two different parts of the world, are among the main factors that propelled the CSU forecast towards a more active season.
Seasonal forecasting models, especially those from NASA, NOAA and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, have increasingly inclined toward the development of “La Niña” event by the end of this year. The long-term outlook for the European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) require for neutral conditions. In these situations without “El Niño”, there are favorable conditions for the development and maintenance of tropical cyclonic activity.
The trend towards more active than normal stations continues in 2020, as has been the case in recent
Although it’s impossible to prevent these storms from forming, we currently have the technology that allows us to know the formation points, the force reached and with which it is expected to strike at a point as well as the trajectory it will have according to the winds in the area. Therefore, it’s possible to have a timely preparation and less impact on the different operations of storage and tr